Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.
Identifieur interne : 000312 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000311; suivant : 000313Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.
Auteurs : Victoria Ng [Canada] ; Aamir Fazil ; Lisa A. Waddell ; Christina Bancej ; Patricia Turgeon ; Ainsley Otten ; Nicole Atchessi ; Nicholas H. OgdenSource :
- CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne [ 1488-2329 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adulte (MeSH), Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Canada (épidémiologie), Contrôle des maladies transmissibles (MeSH), Enfant (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections asymptomatiques (épidémiologie), Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic), Infections à coronavirus (prévention et contrôle), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Isolement du patient (MeSH), Jeune adulte (MeSH), Pandémies (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic), Pneumopathie virale (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Quarantaine (MeSH), Santé publique (MeSH), Simulation numérique (MeSH), Sujet âgé (MeSH), Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH), Techniques de laboratoire clinique (MeSH), Traçage des contacts (MeSH).
- MESH :
- diagnostic : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- prévention et contrôle : Infections à coronavirus, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale.
- épidémiologie : Canada, Infections asymptomatiques, Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Betacoronavirus, Contrôle des maladies transmissibles, Enfant, Humains, Isolement du patient, Jeune adulte, Quarantaine, Santé publique, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Techniques de laboratoire clinique, Traçage des contacts.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Canada.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adult (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), Asymptomatic Infections (epidemiology), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Canada (epidemiology), Child (MeSH), Clinical Laboratory Techniques (MeSH), Communicable Disease Control (MeSH), Computer Simulation (MeSH), Contact Tracing (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Humans (MeSH), Middle Aged (MeSH), Pandemics (prevention & control), Patient Isolation (MeSH), Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Public Health (MeSH), Quarantine (MeSH), Young Adult (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Canada.
- diagnosis : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- epidemiology : Asymptomatic Infections, Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Betacoronavirus, Child, Clinical Laboratory Techniques, Communicable Disease Control, Computer Simulation, Contact Tracing, Humans, Middle Aged, Patient Isolation, Public Health, Quarantine, Young Adult.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Continual efforts to eliminate community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will be needed to prevent additional waves of infection. We explored the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.
METHODS
We developed an age-structured agent-based model of the Canadian population simulating the impact of current and projected levels of public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Interventions included case detection and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, physical distancing and community closures, evaluated alone and in combination.
RESULTS
Without any interventions, 64.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 63.9%-65.0%) of Canadians will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (total attack rate) and 3.6% (95% CrI 2.4%-3.8%) of those infected and symptomatic will die. If case detection and contact tracing continued at baseline levels without maintained physical distancing and reimplementation of restrictive measures, this combination brought the total attack rate to 56.1% (95% CrI 0.05%-57.1%), but it dropped to 0.4% (95% CrI 0.03%-23.5%) with enhanced case detection and contact tracing. Combining the latter scenario with maintained physical distancing reduced the total attack rate to 0.2% (95% CrI 0.03%-1.7%) and was the only scenario that consistently kept hospital and intensive care unit bed use under capacity, prevented nearly all deaths and eliminated the epidemic. Extending school closures had minimal effects but did reduce transmission in schools; however, extending closures of workplaces and mixed-age venues markedly reduced attack rates and usually or always eliminated the epidemic under any scenario.
INTERPRETATION
Controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission will depend on enhancing and maintaining interventions at both the community and individual levels. Without such interventions, a resurgent epidemic will occur, with the risk of overwhelming our health care systems.
DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.200990
PubMed: 32778573
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Waddell</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bancej, Christina" sort="Bancej, Christina" uniqKey="Bancej C" first="Christina" last="Bancej">Christina Bancej</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Turgeon, Patricia" sort="Turgeon, Patricia" uniqKey="Turgeon P" first="Patricia" last="Turgeon">Patricia Turgeon</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Otten, Ainsley" sort="Otten, Ainsley" uniqKey="Otten A" first="Ainsley" last="Otten">Ainsley Otten</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Atchessi, Nicole" sort="Atchessi, Nicole" uniqKey="Atchessi N" first="Nicole" last="Atchessi">Nicole Atchessi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ogden, Nicholas H" sort="Ogden, Nicholas H" uniqKey="Ogden N" first="Nicholas H" last="Ogden">Nicholas H. Ogden</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32778573</idno><idno type="pmid">32778573</idno><idno type="doi">10.1503/cmaj.200990</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000722</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000722</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000722</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000722</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000722</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.</title><author><name sortKey="Ng, Victoria" sort="Ng, Victoria" uniqKey="Ng V" first="Victoria" last="Ng">Victoria Ng</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont. victoria.ng@canada.ca.</nlm:affiliation><country wicri:rule="url">Canada</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fazil, Aamir" sort="Fazil, Aamir" uniqKey="Fazil A" first="Aamir" last="Fazil">Aamir Fazil</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Waddell, Lisa A" sort="Waddell, Lisa A" uniqKey="Waddell L" first="Lisa A" last="Waddell">Lisa A. Waddell</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bancej, Christina" sort="Bancej, Christina" uniqKey="Bancej C" first="Christina" last="Bancej">Christina Bancej</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Turgeon, Patricia" sort="Turgeon, Patricia" uniqKey="Turgeon P" first="Patricia" last="Turgeon">Patricia Turgeon</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Otten, Ainsley" sort="Otten, Ainsley" uniqKey="Otten A" first="Ainsley" last="Otten">Ainsley Otten</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Atchessi, Nicole" sort="Atchessi, Nicole" uniqKey="Atchessi N" first="Nicole" last="Atchessi">Nicole Atchessi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ogden, Nicholas H" sort="Ogden, Nicholas H" uniqKey="Ogden N" first="Nicholas H" last="Ogden">Nicholas H. Ogden</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Ont</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne</title><idno type="eISSN">1488-2329</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent (MeSH)</term><term>Adult (MeSH)</term><term>Aged (MeSH)</term><term>Aged, 80 and over (MeSH)</term><term>Asymptomatic Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>Canada (epidemiology)</term><term>Child (MeSH)</term><term>Clinical Laboratory Techniques (MeSH)</term><term>Communicable Disease Control (MeSH)</term><term>Computer Simulation (MeSH)</term><term>Contact Tracing (MeSH)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Middle Aged (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (prevention & control)</term><term>Patient Isolation (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>Public Health (MeSH)</term><term>Quarantine (MeSH)</term><term>Young Adult (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent (MeSH)</term><term>Adulte (MeSH)</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>Canada (épidémiologie)</term><term>Contrôle des maladies transmissibles (MeSH)</term><term>Enfant (MeSH)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Infections asymptomatiques (épidémiologie)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (prévention et contrôle)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Isolement du patient (MeSH)</term><term>Jeune adulte (MeSH)</term><term>Pandémies (prévention et contrôle)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (prévention et contrôle)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (transmission)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term><term>Quarantaine (MeSH)</term><term>Santé publique (MeSH)</term><term>Simulation numérique (MeSH)</term><term>Sujet âgé (MeSH)</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH)</term><term>Techniques de laboratoire clinique (MeSH)</term><term>Traçage des contacts (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Canada</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnosis" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="diagnostic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Asymptomatic Infections</term><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prévention et contrôle" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Canada</term><term>Infections asymptomatiques</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Child</term><term>Clinical Laboratory Techniques</term><term>Communicable Disease Control</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Contact Tracing</term><term>Humans</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Patient Isolation</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Quarantine</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Contrôle des maladies transmissibles</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Humains</term><term>Isolement du patient</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Quarantaine</term><term>Santé publique</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term><term>Techniques de laboratoire clinique</term><term>Traçage des contacts</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Canada</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b></p><p>Continual efforts to eliminate community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will be needed to prevent additional waves of infection. We explored the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>We developed an age-structured agent-based model of the Canadian population simulating the impact of current and projected levels of public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Interventions included case detection and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, physical distancing and community closures, evaluated alone and in combination.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>Without any interventions, 64.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 63.9%-65.0%) of Canadians will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (total attack rate) and 3.6% (95% CrI 2.4%-3.8%) of those infected and symptomatic will die. If case detection and contact tracing continued at baseline levels without maintained physical distancing and reimplementation of restrictive measures, this combination brought the total attack rate to 56.1% (95% CrI 0.05%-57.1%), but it dropped to 0.4% (95% CrI 0.03%-23.5%) with enhanced case detection and contact tracing. Combining the latter scenario with maintained physical distancing reduced the total attack rate to 0.2% (95% CrI 0.03%-1.7%) and was the only scenario that consistently kept hospital and intensive care unit bed use under capacity, prevented nearly all deaths and eliminated the epidemic. Extending school closures had minimal effects but did reduce transmission in schools; however, extending closures of workplaces and mixed-age venues markedly reduced attack rates and usually or always eliminated the epidemic under any scenario.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>INTERPRETATION</b></p><p>Controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission will depend on enhancing and maintaining interventions at both the community and individual levels. Without such interventions, a resurgent epidemic will occur, with the risk of overwhelming our health care systems.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32778573</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>24</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>24</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1488-2329</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>192</Volume><Issue>37</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>14</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne</Title><ISOAbbreviation>CMAJ</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>E1053-E1064</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1503/cmaj.200990</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND">Continual efforts to eliminate community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will be needed to prevent additional waves of infection. We explored the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS">We developed an age-structured agent-based model of the Canadian population simulating the impact of current and projected levels of public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Interventions included case detection and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, physical distancing and community closures, evaluated alone and in combination.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS">Without any interventions, 64.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 63.9%-65.0%) of Canadians will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (total attack rate) and 3.6% (95% CrI 2.4%-3.8%) of those infected and symptomatic will die. If case detection and contact tracing continued at baseline levels without maintained physical distancing and reimplementation of restrictive measures, this combination brought the total attack rate to 56.1% (95% CrI 0.05%-57.1%), but it dropped to 0.4% (95% CrI 0.03%-23.5%) with enhanced case detection and contact tracing. Combining the latter scenario with maintained physical distancing reduced the total attack rate to 0.2% (95% CrI 0.03%-1.7%) and was the only scenario that consistently kept hospital and intensive care unit bed use under capacity, prevented nearly all deaths and eliminated the epidemic. Extending school closures had minimal effects but did reduce transmission in schools; however, extending closures of workplaces and mixed-age venues markedly reduced attack rates and usually or always eliminated the epidemic under any scenario.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="INTERPRETATION">Controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission will depend on enhancing and maintaining interventions at both the community and individual levels. Without such interventions, a resurgent epidemic will occur, with the risk of overwhelming our health care systems.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 Joule Inc. or its licensors.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ng</LastName><ForeName>Victoria</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont. victoria.ng@canada.ca.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fazil</LastName><ForeName>Aamir</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Waddell</LastName><ForeName>Lisa A</ForeName><Initials>LA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bancej</LastName><ForeName>Christina</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Turgeon</LastName><ForeName>Patricia</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Otten</LastName><ForeName>Ainsley</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Atchessi</LastName><ForeName>Nicole</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ogden</LastName><ForeName>Nicholas H</ForeName><Initials>NH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>09</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Canada</Country><MedlineTA>CMAJ</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9711805</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0820-3946</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Protocol" UI="C000657964">COVID-19 diagnostic testing</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>AIM</CitationSubset><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="CommentIn"><RefSource>CMAJ. 2020 Sep 14;192(37):E1074-E1075</RefSource><PMID Version="1">32778574</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000369" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged, 80 and over</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058345" MajorTopicYN="N">Asymptomatic Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002170" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Canada</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D019411" MajorTopicYN="N">Clinical Laboratory Techniques</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003140" MajorTopicYN="N">Communicable Disease Control</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003198" MajorTopicYN="N">Computer Simulation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D016358" MajorTopicYN="Y">Contact Tracing</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000175" MajorTopicYN="N">diagnosis</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D010356" MajorTopicYN="Y">Patient Isolation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000175" MajorTopicYN="N">diagnosis</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011634" MajorTopicYN="Y">Public Health</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011790" MajorTopicYN="Y">Quarantine</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><CoiStatement>Competing interests: None declared.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>21</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>12</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>12</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32778573</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">cmaj.200990</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1503/cmaj.200990</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Atchessi, Nicole" sort="Atchessi, Nicole" uniqKey="Atchessi N" first="Nicole" last="Atchessi">Nicole Atchessi</name><name sortKey="Bancej, Christina" sort="Bancej, Christina" uniqKey="Bancej C" first="Christina" last="Bancej">Christina Bancej</name><name sortKey="Fazil, Aamir" sort="Fazil, Aamir" uniqKey="Fazil A" first="Aamir" last="Fazil">Aamir Fazil</name><name sortKey="Ogden, Nicholas H" sort="Ogden, Nicholas H" uniqKey="Ogden N" first="Nicholas H" last="Ogden">Nicholas H. Ogden</name><name sortKey="Otten, Ainsley" sort="Otten, Ainsley" uniqKey="Otten A" first="Ainsley" last="Otten">Ainsley Otten</name><name sortKey="Turgeon, Patricia" sort="Turgeon, Patricia" uniqKey="Turgeon P" first="Patricia" last="Turgeon">Patricia Turgeon</name><name sortKey="Waddell, Lisa A" sort="Waddell, Lisa A" uniqKey="Waddell L" first="Lisa A" last="Waddell">Lisa A. Waddell</name></noCountry><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ng, Victoria" sort="Ng, Victoria" uniqKey="Ng V" first="Victoria" last="Ng">Victoria Ng</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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